Myth & Errors in the Reporting on Antifragile by the Members of the 1%,  The InternationalFraternityofEmptySuitsNotExposedtoHarm (IFESNEH)



- Golden rule: one is not ethically allowed to tells others what to do unless he is doing it himself, and can suffer harm in case it turns out to be a bad advice. Predictors should be harmed by their prediction errors if these stand to hurt others. As such I cannot give advice, I can only tell readers what I do. Likewise, I cannot tell people what I predict, I can just describe my portfolio. This rule prevents people from being harmful phonies.

-Antifragile is critical the 1% of professions in violation of the golden rule, hat is, phony and harmful to others (there is nothing wrong phony on its own) —namely members of the InternationalFraternityofEmptySuitsNotExposedtoHarm  (IFESNEH)  that is, media noise-journalists, predictors, economists, academizing academics outside scientific disciplines, politicians lobbyists, and such frauds who are not harmed by their mistakes that harm others, in other words not ethically calibrated. The style is irreverent and idiosyncratic, but only irreverent against harmful phonies. Remember they are the ones reporting on the books by the very reason that they are not doers.

- Antifragile is a glorification of the doer and ethically calibrated victim of IFESNEH, the 99% : entrepreneur, taxpayer, bus driver, artisan, real people, etc.

- The book was written in exactly the same style as the other books in the Incerto trilogy  (The Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness). It has the same characters (Fat Tony, Nero Tulip). It was written for readers, not reviewers (and middlemen), and does not allow summarizing by scanning. The organization is fractal, with a general and comprehensive introduction, followed by chapters, subsections and depth leaving no stone unturned. Critically, after the introduction, the bulk of the book can be read out of sequence. No "narrative nonfiction" is allowed, only ideas, parables, logical discussions, and pure fiction.

- The advance as reported in the press does not correspond to a single publisher, but to an estimate from the ~ 32  publishers of The Black Swan who committed to the follow-up. But it did certainly generate a bit of envious responses. (Note that the bulk of comments on the books were made before the book was sold, by some IFESNEH members who had not read it and are stupid enough to leave a record of such ethical violation.)


- The equivalence: 

Fragile (to both shocks & model error) Concave (functional space) left tail (probability space)

AntiFragile (to both shocks & model error) Convex (functional space) not fragile in the left tail (probability space), positive in right tail.

is a mathematical necessity (by theorem).  No positive statement is made with confidence, only via negativa ones.

All decision-making rules (such as barbells, heuristics, etc.) follow from the equivalence.



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Longer Discussion: Fractal is good for the soul