Technical Papers By Others Expanding on The Black Swan and The Fourth Quadrant

( Current works by other researchers using the ideas as a starting point).



International Journal of Forecasting, 2009 -- Decision Making under Low Levels of Predictability - Articles by Makridakis, Gigererenzer, Taleb, Goldstein, etc.

The American Statistician, 2007, Black Swan Articles  --Brown, Lund, Wesfall, Hilbe, and Taleb

Critical  Review Black Swan Symposium, 2010,  Blyth, Callahan, Jervis (some idiot), and Runde




Lecturing Birds on Flying  Pablo Triana, Wiley 2009

The Blank Swan, The End of Probability   Elie Ayache, Wiley 2010

The Art of Credit Derivatives: Demystifying the Black Swan , Joao Garcia & Serge Goossens. Wiley 2010

On the Survival of Rats in the Slush Pile  Michael Allen (on the Casanova problem in the publishing industry)

Informing Business: Research and Education on a Rugged Landscape T. Grandon Gill 2010

Leuko Kotsyfi, Mauro Karavi, M. Androulakis, Athens, 2010




It's the Unknown Unknowns That Matter , AJ Senagore - Diseases of the Colon & Rectum, 2010

Flash Crashes, Bursts, and Black Swans: Parallels Between Financial Markets and Healthcare Systems BJ West… - Journal of Nursing Administration, 2010

Harrison, M. (2009), "Adapting to the Entirely Unpredictable: Black Swans, Fat Tails, Aberrant Events, and Hubristic Models," Brain, 10.

Johnson, P. D. R. (2011), "Extensively Resistant Tuberculosis in the Lands Down Under," The Medical journal of Australia, 194, 565.

Hewett, T. E. (2009), "Prevention of Non-Contact Acl Injuries in Women: Use of the Core of Evidence to Clip the Wings of a Ūblack SwanĒ," Current sports medicine reports, 8, 219.

Mew, M. (2009), "A Black Swan?," British Dental Journal, 206, 393-393.

West, B. J., and Clancy, T. R. (2010), "Flash Crashes, Bursts, and Black Swans: Parallels between Financial Markets and Healthcare Systems," Journal of Nursing Administration, 40, 456.

Doyle, S. (2012). CMAJ: Canadian Medical Association journal= journal de l’Association medicale canadienne.

Johnson, P. (2011). Extensively resistant tuberculosis in the lands down under. Medical Journal of Australia, 194(11):565.

Clancy, T. (2011). Staying afloat in a sea of digital waves. Journal of Nursing Administration, 41(2):52.



ECOLOGY & CLIMATE CHANGE (Applications of the 4th Quadrant)

Why compare marine ecosystems? Steven A. Murawski et al, ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2010

Turning Black Swans Green: The Vittorio Santaniello Memorial Lecture Odin K. Knudsen, AgBio, The Journal of Agrobiology Management and Economics, 2010

Review of Methodologies and Possible Scenarios For Conducting Vulnerability Assessments to Climate Change , G.J. Nasr,  United Nations Economic and Social Commission, 2009

Nunez, M. and Logares, R. (2012). Black swans in ecology and evolution: The importance of improbable but highly influential events. Ideas in Ecology and Evolution, 5.

Moller, N. and Wikman-Svahn, P. (2011). Black elephants and black swans of nuclear safety. Ethics, Policy & Environment, 14(3):273–278.

Duderstadt, J. and Colloquium, V. (2011). Global sustainability: Timescales, magnitudes, paradigms, and black swans. GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY AND THE RE- SPONSIBILITIES OF UNIVERSITIES, page 105.

Heinonen, S. and Ruotsalainen, J. (2011). Anticipation and interpreta- tion of black swans as a learning process–lessons of a volcanic ash cloud. SECURITY IN FUTURES– SECURITY IN CHANGE, page 180.

Sniedovich, M. (2012). Fooled by local robustness: an applied ecology perspective. Eco- logical Applications, 22(5):1421–1427.

Hnottavange-Telleen, K., Chabora, E., Finley, R., Greenberg, S., and Marsteller, S. (2011). Risk management in a large-scale co2 geosequestration pilot project, illinois, usa. Energy Procedia, 4:4044–4051.

Plag, H. and Bye, B. (2011). The science-policy link: Stakeholder reactions to the uncertainties of future sea level rise? In AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts, volume 1, page 1756.



Black Swans and Archaeological Interpretation, Monton-Subias, Norwegian Archaeological Revie, 2010



Black swans and elephants on the move: the impact of emergencies on the welfare state FG Castles - Journal of European Social Policy, 2010

Statesmanship and the Problem of Theoretical Generalization JF Daniel, B Smith - Polity, 2010

Castles, F. G. (2010), "Black Swans and Elephants on the Move: The Impact of Emergencies on the Welfare State," Journal of European Social Policy, 20, 91.

Taleb, N. and Blyth, M. (2011). The black swan of Cairo. Foreign Affairs, 90(3):33– 39.

Bellomo, N., Herrero, M., and Tosin, A. (2012). On the dynamics of social conflicts: looking for the black swan. Arxiv preprint arXiv:1202.4554.




Random Activities Theory: The Case for 'Black Swan 'Criminology T Griffin, BG Stitt - Critical Criminology, 2010




Leidner, J. L., and Schilder, F. (2010), "Hunting for the Black Swan: Risk Mining from Text," Association for Computational Linguistics, pp. 54-59.





The Black Swan  Chiszar, WD Costain - The Psychological Record, 2010

 In Search of Singular Insight, Gary Thomas, 2009

Shinn, L. (2012). Liberal education in the age of the unthinkable. Change: The Magazine of Higher Learning, 44(4):15–21.

In Search of the Black Swans, Mark Buchanan, Physics World, 2009 (about the publish and perish problem)





Strategies for managing the Consequences of Black Swan Events, Avinash M Nafday, Leadership and Management in Engineering, October 2009

A new structural design method to prevent building collapse from black swan events, Avinash M Nafday, Elsevier : Structural Safety, Volume 33, Issue 1, pp 108-114, 2011.

Toward Risk Assessment of Large-Impact and Rare Event, K Hole, LH Netland - IEEE Security and Privacy, 2010

Black Swans, Gray Cygnets and Other Rare Birds EL Rissland - Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2009 - Springer

Some Swans are Black S Kelly-Bootle - Queue, 2007

Identification of safety and security critical systems and activitiesT Aven - Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2009

Categorizing risks in seven large projects-Which risks do the projects focus on? HP Krane, A RolstadĆs, NOE … - Project Management …, 2010

Ranganathan, P. (2009), "Green Clouds and Black Swans in the Exascale Era," IEEE, pp. 1-2.

The moral dilemma W Goucher - Computer Fraud & Security, 2010

Black Swans [Reflections] RW Lucky - Spectrum, IEEE, 2010

Murphy, J. (2011). The black swan: Lopa and inherent safety cannot prevent all rare and catastrophic incidents. Process Safety Progress.

Davidson, S. (2012). Yield of black swans. IEEE Design & Test of Computers, page 80.

Buhl, H. (2012). Business & Information Systems Engineering, pages 1–5.

Simoncini, L. (2011). Socio-technical complex systems of systems: Can we justifiably trust their resilience? Dependable and Historic Computing, pages 486–497.

Reeves, J., Eveleigh, T., Holzer, T., and Sarkani, S. (2012). The impact of early design phase risk identification biases on space system project performance. In Systems Conference (SysCon), 2012 IEEE International, pages 1–8. IEEE.

Rissland, E. and Xu, X. (2011). Catching gray cygnets: An initial exploration. In Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Law, pages 151–160. ACM.





Quality, Risk and the Taleb Quadrants IBM Quality & Productivity Research, 2009, Ron S. Kenett and Charles S. Tapiero, SSRN

A Black Swan in the Money Market, NBER Working Paper No. W13943, Rock Center for Corporate Governance Working Paper No. 33, John B. Taylor and John C. Williams, Stanford University and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Keynes's uncertainty is not about white or black swans A Terzi - Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 2010 -

Black swans and Knight's epistemological uncertainty: are these concepts also underlying behavioral and post-Walrasian theory? P Davidson - Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 2010

Black Swan or Fat Turkey? Business Strategy Review, Vol. 19, Issue 3, pp. 34-39, Autumn 2008 Geoff Booth and Elias Mazzawi , SSRN

Italian Operational Requirement and Small Banks: The Black Swan Bancaria No. 03-2009 ,Gianfausto Salvadori , Simona Cosma and Giampaolo Gabbi , SSRN

Nickels versus Black Swans: Reputation, Trading Strategies and Asset Prices Yale ICF Working Paper No. 08-26 Steven G. Malliaris and Hongjun Yan C Yale University - International Center for Finance and Yale University - International Center for Finance , SSRN

Swan-Upmanship Business Strategy Review, Vol. 20, Issue 1, pp. 58-61, Spring 2009, Des Dearlove , SSRN

In a fowl mood: the argument for Black Swans over predictability SM Millett - Strategy & Leadership, 2010

The Financial Meltdown of 2008: Causes and Symptoms   Saur Vaishwanar, SSRN

Monetary and Financial Stability  Axel Leijonhufvud, The Centre for Economic Policy Research, No 14

Is the Recent Financial Crisis Really a “Once-in-a-Century” Event G Zhou, Y Zhu - Financial Analysts Journal, 2010

Black Monday and Black Swans JC Bogle - Financial Analysts Journal, 2008

A Flock of Black Swans RB Seaberg - Journal of Financial Planning, 200

Asean's “black swans" DK Emmerson - Journal of Democracy, 2008 -

Market turmoil from subprime to Jerome Kerviel: Are models letting the industry down? , Leonard Matz Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions

Black holes in risk governance M Garnier - Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, 2009

Debate: The future of public administration—Serving beyond the predictable A Gray, J Bourgon - Public Money & Management, 2009

Business Black Swans and the Use and Abuse of a Notion, Graeme Dean & Frank Clarke, 2010, Australian Accounting Review

Christie, M., Cliffe, A., Dawid, P., and Senn, S. (2011). Issues for modellers. Simplicity, Complexity and Modelling, pages 187–192.

Black Swans, New Nostradamuses, Voodoo Decision Theories and the Science of Decision-Making in the Face of Severe Uncertainty M Sniedovich – 2010

Grey swans, black swans and risk management Sudhakar Raju Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, 2010

Dubikovsky, V., Hayes, M. Y., Goldberg, L. R., and Liu, M. (2010), "How Well Can We Forecast the Risk of Financial Extremes?."

Focardi, S., and Fabozzi, F. J. (2009), "Black Swans and White Eagles: On Mathematics and Finance," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 69, 379-394.

Marsh, T., and Pfleiderer, P. (2011), "Financial Modeling and the Crisis:Black Swans," Manuscript, Stanford University.

Desai, J., Modi, A., Dave, A., and Desai, K. (2011). Decoding black swan: A quantitative approach to tactical stock investing.

Thorp, E. and Mizusawa, S. (2011). Optimal capital growth versus black swan insurance part i: Mediocristan. Wilmott, 2011(55):66–75.

Thorp, E. and Mizusawa, S. (2012). Optimal capital growth versus black swan insurance part ii: Extremistan. Wilmott, 2012(57):26–31.

Lorey, J., Naumann, F., Forchhammer, B., Mascher, A., Retzlaff, P., ZamaniFarahani, A., Discher, S., Faehnrich, C., Lemme, S., Papenbrock, T., et al. (2011). Black swan: augmenting statistics with event data. In Proceedings of the 20th ACM international conference on Information and knowledge management, pages 2517–2520. ACM.

Faber, M. (2011). Where the black swans hide & the 10 best days myth.

Aggarwal, R. and Bohinc, J. (2011). Black swans and supply chain strategic necessity. Journal of Transportation Security, pages 1–11.

Johnson, N. (2012). Financial black swans driven by ultrafast machine ecology.

Illgner, A., Platt, J., and Taylor, B. (2011). Black swans, crisis economics, and globalization: A critical appraisal.

Dean, G. and Clarke, F. (2011). 14. when history is ignored, business black swans and the use and abuse of a notion. Regulatory Failure and the Global Financial Crisis: An Australian Perspective, page 214.

Sniedovich, M. (2012). Black swans, new nostradamuses, voodoo decision theories, and the science of decision making in the face of severe uncertainty. International Transactions in Operational Research, 19(1-2):253–281.

Khokhlov, V. (2012). Black swans are not that black.

Elahi, S. (2011). Futures, 43(2):196–201.

Taylor, P. (2012). Fooled by randomness.

Ainsworth, R. (2012). Black swans: Recapitulative statements/vies (vat) & use tax reciprocity (rst).

Canova, T. (2011). Black swans and black elephants in plain sight: An empirical review of central bank independence. Chapman Law Review, 14:237.



COOP Hardening Against Black Swans, Victoria Fineberg, National Defense University, 2009

Bircham, J. (2011). opinion: The future–beyond our control. Australian Journal of Emer- gency Management, 26(1).

Hossain, L. and Uddin, S. (2012). Design framework: Coordination in complex and dynamic environment. Disaster Prevention and Management, 21(3):5–5.

Olafsson, G. (2012). Preparing for Black Swans: A Comparative Case Study of Domestic Security Structures Established after the Cold War. PhD thesis, Norwegian University of Science and Technology.

Lewis, T., Mackin, T., and Darken, R. (2011). Critical infrastructure as complex emer- gent systems. International Journal of Cyber Warfare and Terrorism (IJCWT), 1(1):1–12.

Hesse, G., Rea, R., Booth, A., and Green, C. (2012). Wildlife sightings at western canadian regional airports: Implications for risk analyses. Human Dimensions of Wildlife, 17(4):295–300.

Masys, A. (2012). Black swans to grey swans: revealing the uncertainty. Disaster Prevention and Management, 21(3):320–335.

Įberg, J. (2011). Peace research and black swans. Experiments with Peace: Celebrating Peace on Johan Galtung’s 80th Birthday, page 365.



Dragon-Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises, Didier Sornette, International Journal of Terraspace Science and Engineering 2009

Sachs, M., Yoder, M., Turcotte, D., Rundle, J., and Malamud, B. (2012). Black swans, power laws, and dragon-kings: Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, wildfires, floods, and soc models. The European Physical Journal-Special Topics, 205(1):167–182.

Janczura, J. and Weron, R. (2011). Black swans or dragon kings? a simple test for deviations from the power law. Arxiv preprint arXiv:1102.3712.

Janczura, J. and Weron, R. (2012). Ci powertail: Matlab function to test for’dragon kings’ vs.’black swans’. HSC Software.

Kang, J. and Edwards, D. (2011). Tipping points, butterflies, and black swans: a vision for spatio-temporal data mining analysis. Advances in Spatial and Temporal Databases, pages 454–457.

Ellsworth, W. (2012). Heavy tails and earthquake probabilities. Seismological Research Letters, 83(3):483–484.

Johnson, N. and Tivnan, B. (2012). Mechanistic origin of dragon-kings in a population of competing agents. The European Physical Journal-Special Topics, 205(1):65–78.

Yukalov, V. and Sornette, D. (2012). Statistical outliers and dragon-kings as bose-condensed droplets. The European Physical Journal-Special Topics, 205(1):53–64.



Black Swans or Black Holes, Gerry Smedinghoff, Contingencies, May-Jun 2008

Infinite-Mean Losses: Insurance's “Dread Disease” MR Powers - Journal of Risk Finance, 2010



How to win sales and influence customers: a black swan story S Brown - Journal of Customer Behaviour, 2008

Millett, S. M. (2010), "In a Fowl Mood: The Argument for Black Swans over Predictability," Strategy & Leadership, 38.

Rissland, E. (2009), "Black Swans, Gray Cygnets and Other Rare Birds," Case-Based Reasoning Research and Development, 6-13.

Sambharya, R. and Rasheed, A. (2012). Global risk in a changing world: New paradigms and practice. Organizational Dynamics.

Abe, A. (2011). Relation between chance discovery and black swan awareness. Knowlege-Based and Intelligent Information and Engineering Systems, pages 495–504.

Wu, W., Rose, G., and Lyytinen, K. (2011). Managing black swan information technology projects. In System Sciences (HICSS), 2011 44th Hawaii International Conference on, pages 1–10. IEEE.

Flyvbjerg, B. and Budzier, A. (2011). Double whammy–how ict projects are fooled by randomness and screwed by political intent. Said Business School, Working Paper.

Rolstad ̊as, A., Hetland, P., Jergeas, G., and Westney, R. (2011). Rethinking project risk management. Risk Navigation Strategies for Major Capital Projects, pages 15–38.

Massaro, T. (2011). Substantive due process, black swans, and innovation.

Zafft, R. (2012). A white elephant is not a black swan: Why you can do more about it project risk than you think (a reply to flyvberg and budzier).



An Unfortunate 'Tail': Reconsidering Risk Management Incentives after the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 D O Edwards - University of Colorado Law Review, 2010

Rapoport, N. (2012). Black swans, ostriches, and ponzi schemes. Golden Gate UL Rev., 42:627–661.



Shestakov, Roman, Black Swans in Churches: Tails and Biases in Religious Giving, Journal of Religion and Business Ethic, 2010

Knowledge Building and Social Work Research: A Critical Perspective W LeCroy… - Research on Social Work Practice, 2010

Fragments on black swan: money, credit and finance in The Arcades Project of Walter Benjamin F Estrada - 2010

Safety and Security in Urban Academic Libraries: a risk assessment approach to emergency preparedness TE Raffensperger - Urban Library Journal, 2010

Barnes, S. J., Wells, M. A., and Verrall, M. R. (2009), "Effects of Magmatic Processes, Serpentinization, and Talc-Carbonate Alteration on Sulfide Mineralogy and Ore Textures in the Black Swan Disseminated Nickel Sulfide Deposit, Yilgarn Craton," Economic Geology, 104, 539.

Merritt, E. (2011). How to forecast the future of museums. Curator: The Museum Journal, 54(1):25–34.

Harrison, E., and Landon, C. (2011), Black Swan: A Koorie Woman's Life, Allen & Unwin.

Cretu, O., Stewart, R. B., and Berends, T. (2011), Risk Management for Design and Construction, RSMeans.

Nugent, W. (2012). Angewandte Chemie International Edition.