Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Home Page

About: author of the INCERTO a philosophical and practical essay on uncertainty (Skin In the Game, Antifragile , The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and The Bed of Procrustes), a (so far) 5-volume"investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk,and decision making when we don’t understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions in nonoverlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order."  Amazon and  B&N

Review of the Incerto as a whole by Branko Milanovic

Vol 1 of the Technical Incerto (Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails) is out. Freely available electronic version on ArXiv.

Physical copies here.

Incerto Essays on Medium

Skin in the Game,  Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life  -the fifth volume of the Incerto.

What do I mean by SITG? My own version

Excerpts from Skin in the Game

Econtalk (Russ Roberts)

Discussion with Gad Saad

Interview with Ralph Nader

Interview with Ron Paul

The book was not submitted to any reviewer. There was no  U.S. book tour, no promotion, no advance copies, just a single lecture in NYC. Yet it mysteriously  opened  at #2 on the NYT bestsellers list.

Reviewing the reviewers (putting skin in their game)

A mathematical parallel version of the Incerto is freely available here electronic version on ArXiv., and here are short explanations on YouTube with the Probability Mooc.

ArXiv Page for recent (technical, not philosophical) research papers on problems with probability.

Started the Real World Risk Institute granting a Mini-Certificate


Publisher bio for nontechnical stuff.

Bio to use for conferences including pictures (please no fluffy stuff, no honors, ranks, etc.)

Researcher CV with publications (note that most publications are necessarily backups to points made in the Incerto).

Facebook Forum (limited to philosophical discussions, books in progress.)

Philosophical Notebook

Short list of smear artists and why one should address the smallest number of smearers

 Lecture requests: lectures  -at- fooledbyrandomness-dot-com.
 Lecture clients  (Please refrain from offering honorary degrees, awards, listings in "100 most...",& similar debasements of knowledge that turn it into spectator sport).

Mail: Important (only): gamma -at- fooledbyrandomness-dot-com. The current backlog is > 10 months. (Please keep very short (postcard style); please avoid attachments and links).

I beg journalists & members of the media to get in contact with the publishers if they need to, not me (please, please). Also, please no documentary films, newspaper articles, book chapters, and interviews beyond book launches.

Commentary on the Map of the Incerto

Genealogy of the INCERTO