Technical Papers Expanding on The Black Swan and The Fourth Quadrant

(These are not book Reviews, but current research using the ideas as a starting point). For references in books, see here.

 

 

 

CURRENT  CIRCULATING ACADEMIC & TECHNICAL RESEARCH BUILDING ON THE IDEAS

 

 

SPECIAL ISSUES of ACADEMIC JOURNALS:

 

International Journal of Forecasting, 2009 -- Decision Making under Low Levels of Predictability - Articles by Makridakis, Gigererenzer, Taleb, Goldstein, etc.

 

The American Statistician 2007 Black Swan Articles  --Brown, Lund, Wesfall, Hilbe, and Taleb

 

Critical  Review Black Swan Symposium Blyth, Callahan, Jervis, and Runde

 

 

BOOK LENGTH WORKS

 

Lecturing Birds on Flying  Pablo Triana, Wiley 2009

 

The Blank Swan, The End of Probability   Elie Ayache, Wiley 2010

 

The Art of Credit Derivatives: Demystifying the Black Swan Joao Garcia & Serge Goossens. Wiley 2010

 

On the Survival of Rats in the Slush Pile  Michael Allen (on the Casanova problem in the publishing industry)

 

Informing Business: Research and Education on a Rugged Landscape T. Grandon Gill 2010

 

 

MEDICINE

 

It's the Unknown Unknowns That Matter AJ Senagore - Diseases of the Colon & Rectum, 2010

 

 

POLITICAL SCIENCE

 

Black swans and elephants on the move: the impact of emergencies on the welfare state FG Castles - Journal of European Social Policy, 2010

 

Statesmanship and the Problem of Theoretical Generalization JF Daniel, B Smith - Polity, 2010

 

 

CRIMINOLOGY

 

Random Activities Theory: The Case for 'Black Swan'Criminology T Griffin, BG Stitt - Critical Criminology, 2010

 

 

ECONOMICS / STATISTICS / OPERATIONS RESEARCH

 

Quality, Risk and the Taleb Quadrants IBM Quality & Productivity Research, 2009, Ron S. Kenett and Charles S. Tapiero, SSRN

 

A Black Swan in the Money Market, NBER Working Paper No. W13943, Rock Center for Corporate Governance Working Paper No. 33

John B. Taylor and John C. Williams, Stanford University and Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

 

Black Swan or Fat Turkey? Business Strategy Review, Vol. 19, Issue 3, pp. 34-39, Autumn 2008 Geoff Booth and Elias Mazzawi , SSRN

 

Italian Operational Requirement and Small Banks: The Black Swan Bancaria No. 03-2009 ,Gianfausto Salvadori , Simona Cosma and Giampaolo Gabbi , SSRN

 

Nickels versus Black Swans: Reputation, Trading Strategies and Asset Prices Yale ICF Working Paper No. 08-26 Steven G. Malliaris and Hongjun Yan C Yale University - International Center for Finance and Yale University - International Center for Finance , SSRN

 

Swan-Upmanship Business Strategy Review, Vol. 20, Issue 1, pp. 58-61, Spring 2009, Des Dearlove , SSRN

 

The Financial Meltdown of 2008: Causes and Symptoms   Saur Vaishwanar, SSRN

 

Monetary and Financial Stability  Axel Leijonhufvud, The Centre for Economic Policy Research, No 14

 

Is the Recent Financial Crisis Really a ÒOnce-in-a-CenturyÓ Event G Zhou, Y Zhu - Financial Analysts Journal, 2010

 

Black Monday and Black Swans JC Bogle - Financial Analysts Journal, 2008

 

A Flock of Black Swans RB Seaberg - Journal of Financial Planning, 200

 

Asean's Òblack swans" DK Emmerson - Journal of Democracy, 2008 - muse.jhu.edu

 

Market turmoil from subprime to Jerome Kerviel: Are models letting the industry down? , Leonard Matz Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions

 

Black holes in risk governance M Garnier - Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, 2009

 

Debate: The future of public administration—Serving beyond the predictable A Gray, J Bourgon - Public Money & Management, 2009

 

Business Black Swans and the Use and Abuse of a Notion, Graeme Dean & Frank Clarke, 2010, Australian Accounting Review

 

Black Swans, New Nostradamuses, Voodoo Decision Theories and the Science of Decision-Making in the Face of Severe Uncertainty M Sniedovich - 2010

 

DEFENSE

 

COOP Hardening Against Black Swans, Victoria Fineberg, National Defense University, 2009

Grey swans, black swans and risk management Sudhakar Raju Journal of Risk Management in Financial Institutions, 2010

 

 

PHYSICS/ECONOPHYSICS

 

Dragon-Kings, Black Swans and the Prediction of Crises, Didier Sornette, 2009, ArXiv, arXiv.org > physics > arXiv:0907.4290, In Press, International Journal of Terraspace Science and Engineering 2009

 

 

ENGINEERING & COMPUTER SCIENCE

 

Strategies for managing the Consequences of Black Swan Events, Avinash M Nafday, Leadership and Management in Engineering, October 2009

 

Toward Risk Assessment of Large-Impact and Rare Event, K Hole, LH Netland - IEEE Security and Privacy, 2010

 

Black Swans, Gray Cygnets and Other Rare Birds EL Rissland - Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2009 - Springer

 

Some Swans are Black S Kelly-Bootle - Queue, 2007

 

Identification of safety and security critical systems and activitiesT Aven - Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2009

 

Categorizing risks in seven large projects-Which risks do the projects focus on? HP Krane, A RolstadŒs, NOE É - Project Management É, 2010

 

The moral dilemma W Goucher - Computer Fraud & Security, 2010

 

 

 

CLMATE CHANGE (Applications of the 4th Quadrant) I

 

Review of Methodologies and Possible Scenarios For Conducting Vulnerability Assessments to Climate Change , G.J.Nasr,  United Nations Economic and Social Commission, 2009

 

ECOLOGY

 

Why compare marine ecosystems? Steven A. Murawski et al, ICES Journal of Marine Science, 2010

 

Turning Black Swans Green: The Vittorio Santaniello Memorial Lecture Odin K. Knudsen, AgBio, The Journal of Agrobiology Management and Economics, 2010

 

INSURANCE

 

Black Swans or Black Holes, Gerry Smedinghoff, Contingencies, May-Jun 2008

 

Infinite-Mean Losses: Insurance's ÒDread DiseaseÓ MR Powers - Journal of Risk Finance, 2010

 

 

EDUCATION

 

In Search of Singular Insight, Gary Thomas, 2009

 

In Search of the Black Swans, Mark Buchanan, Physics World, 2009 (about the publish and perish problem)

 

 

MANAGEMENT

 

How to win sales and influence customers: a black swan story S Brown - Journal of Customer Behaviour, 2008

 

 

 

LAW

 

An Unfortunate 'Tail': Reconsidering Risk Management Incentives after the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 DO Edwards - University of Colorado Law Review, 2010

 

OTHER

 

Black Swans in Churches? Tails and Biases in Religious Giving, Roman Shestakov

 

Knowledge Building and Social Work Research: A Critical Perspective W LeCroyÉ - Research on Social Work Practice, 2010

 

 

Fragments on black swan: money, credit and finance in The Arcades Project of Walter Benjamin F Estrada - 2010

 

Safety and Security in Urban Academic Libraries: a risk assessment approach to emergency preparedness TE Raffensperger - Urban Library Journal, 2010