Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Home Page

 

Forthcoming Book

Antifragility, Sept 2012, Random House (US) & Penguin (UK)

Recent Research Papers

The detection heuristic (technical paper) , or a simpler, more intuitive explanation

Why we don't know what we are talking about when we talk about probability (NEW)

Why Short Term Fat Tails Means Long Term Fat Tails (debunking illusions of "central limit theorem"; a (technical) reply to Treynor's "What can Taleb Learn From Markowitz?")

Errors as counterfactuals

Class Material

TECHNICAL WORKS (complete book freely available) [Updated as of Mid 2011]

Technical work (by others) around the idea of The Black Swan

Publisher Bio and Official Bio

Important (only): gamma -at- fooledbyrandomness-dot-com. (I beg journalists & members of the media to leave me alone.)

Lectures and lecture requests