Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Home Page


Ethics: "If you see fraud and don't shout fraud, you are a fraud".

The Fat Tony Seminar: Boston, May 5-6 2014, New England Complex System Institute, With Yaneer Bar-Yam


About: author of the INCERTO (Antifragile , The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and The Bed of Procrustes, a 4-volume "investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don’t understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions in nonoverlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order.)" A mathematical parallel version of the Incerto is freely available here: Silent Risk (in progress, almost complete), and here are short explanations on YouTube with the Probability Mooc.

 

"In Praise of Risk Takers": Best recent Profile/ Discussion of Antifragile; My Best Interview; Letter in Nature explaining what Antifragile is NOT about.

Where are the flaws in the Incerto?

Short TV Summary (CNBC) and (more technical) EDGE Essay: Understanding is a poor substitute for Antifragility

Response to Brian Eno explaining fragility/the non-naive precautionary principle.

Book Reviews of Antifragile that summarize the idea (or deal with the book on its own terms): 1) Long Wall Street Journal Essay (my own summary but limited to policy applications, without the fun/personal part) , 2) Harvard Business Review Excellent! 3) Ralph Nader (syndicated) on ethics (mandatory skin in the game) & on" a boisterous and witty antidote to bureaucratic and individual anomie", 4) Library Journal (Excellent!) 5) TIMES , 5) Fortune ( detected "what goes unsaid is that he's a very funny writer... finely tuned BS detector."), 6 ) Emotional & touching review (The Independent) , 7) Foreign Policy (2 peer-reviews), 8) Matt Ridley in the Wall Street Journal, 9) Newsweek/The Daily Beast (gets the point) , 10) NYT: Is Michiko Kakutani Incompetent or Just Crazy? My own Op-Ed in the NewYork Times 11) Observer Profile, 12) Economist (error: "like a bodybuilder" should read "like a butcher"), 13 Nature , 14) Forbes , 15) Spectator, 16) New Statesman (nostalgia for the 19th Century hobbyist), 17) NY Post ("artists are better under pressure"), 18) McLean (Canada) , 19) Asia Times , 20) MN Progressive Project, 21) Winipeg Free Press, 22) BN Reviews (Got the Nietzsche analogy right), 23) Edit Innovation , 24) Financial Times 25) A smart Mexican philologist, 26) Very, very technical (to me the most important) review, 27) Knowledge@ Wharton 28) 29) Il Sole 24Ore 30) China Post 31) New Spectator 32) Le Temps (Geneva) 33) Leadership Now 34) Aftenposten (Norwegian) 35) Daily Kos 36) Technology TC 37) GBN (Stewart Brand) 38) Start Up (Engl) (Français) 39) Phila Inquirer 40) Marketing Doughnut 41) TIMES (NZ) 42) The Antifragile Enterprise 43) Nouvel Economiste (fr), 44) Avenire (it) 45) The Epistemologist Steve Fuller 46) ENGINEERS (IEEE) 47) Why Are Old Technologies Hard to Kill? 48) Architecture Organizationelle (fr.) 49) Oil Explorations 50) BIG DATA 51) Aftenposten 52) Edge Perspectives HEALTH CARE: 53) Disease Management Care, 54) Health Care (Blog) PHILOSOPHY 55) Philosophy Now

En Français: Contrepoints

Facebook Forum (limited to philosophical discussions)

Duty du jour: exposing a serial plagiarist (Rolf Dobelli).


RESEARCH

New Papers: Taleb and Tetlock: On the Difference between Binary Prediction and True Exposure With Implications for Forecasting Tournaments and Prediction Markets

Taleb and Sandis: The Skin in the Game Heuristic for Protection Against Tail Events

Other Technical Notes: COLLECTED SCIENTIFIC PAPERS: book-length, freely downloadable ~400 pp. (includes related sections from doctoral thesis). Is currently being turned into a linear, text-book style document.

Paper (with IMF staff) on improvement of stress testing (heuristics too simple for the quants to understand), 2012. Another technical version of the Black Swan Problem, 2012. Technical definition of fragility and antifragility , 2012, (very technical), or a simpler, more intuitive method of detection;

No, small probabilities are not overpriced, Also Recent(2012) The Pinker Problem , Why the One Percent of the One Percent do not depend on the economy (the dynamics of wealth and inequality)

Technical work (by others) around the idea of The Black Swan

Trying to Explain Convexity in Medicine (as well as medical errors as short volatility)- Antifragility explained in biology.


Publisher Bio and My Official Bio

Important (only): gamma -at- fooledbyrandomness-dot-com. The current backlog is >6 months. (Please keep very short (postcard style); please avoid attachments and links).

I beg journalists & members of the media to avoid writing to me; they should get in contact with the publishers if they need to. Also, no documentary films, no newspaper articles, no interviews beyond book launches: I write only books and technical papers: I do not wish to have a public life or public intellectual life outside of mandatory book-related events.

Lectures and lecture requests (Please refrain from offering honorary degrees, awards, listings in "100 most...",& similar debasements of knowledge that turn it into spectator sport).