Ethics: "If you see fraud and don't shout fraud, you are a fraud"
New Book: Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder,~570 pp, Fall 2012, Random House (US) & Penguin (UK), US (amazon), UK, US(BN) . Errata
Started a textbook-style document explaining ideas in technical style but linear form (updated progressively), mainly what people do not seem to get about The Black Swan and Antifragile. Letter in Nature explaining what Antifragile is NOT about and the central point that book reviewing fakes are missing.
Prologue. Short TV Summary (CNBC) and (more technical) EDGE Essay: Understanding is a poor substitute for Antifragility
Book Reviews of Antifragile that summarize the idea (or deal with the book on its own terms): 1) Long Wall Street Journal Essay (my own summary but limited to policy applications, without the fun/personal part) , 2) Harvard Business Review Excellent! 3) Ralph Nader (syndicated) on ethics (mandatory skin in the game) & on" a boisterous and witty antidote to bureaucratic and individual anomie", 4) Library Journal (Excellent!) 5) TIMES , 5) Fortune ( detected "what goes unsaid is that he's a very funny writer... finely tuned BS detector."), 6 ) Emotional & touching review (The Independent) , 7) Foreign Policy (2 peer-reviews), 8) Matt Ridley in the Wall Street Journal, 9) Newsweek/The Daily Beast (gets the point) , 10) NYT: Is Michiko Kakutani Incompetent or Just Crazy? My own Op-Ed in the NewYork Times 11) Observer Profile, 12) Economist (error: "like a bodybuilder" should read "like a butcher"), 13 Nature , 14) Forbes , 15) Spectator, 16) New Statesman (nostalgia for the 19th Century hobbyist), 17) NY Post ("artists are better under pressure"), 18) McLean (Canada) , 19) Asia Times , 20) MN Progressive Project, 21) Winipeg Free Press, 22) BN Reviews (Got the Nietzsche analogy right), 23) Edit Innovation , 24) Financial Times 25) A smart Mexican philologist, 26) Very, very technical (to me the most important) review, 27) Knowledge@ Wharton 28) 29) Il Sole 24Ore 30) China Post 31) New Spectator 32) Le Temps (Geneva) 33) Leadership Now 34) Aftenposten (Norwegian) 35) Daily Kos 36) Technology TC 37) GBN (Stewart Brand) 38) Start Up (Engl) (Français) 39) Phila Inquirer 40) Marketing Doughnut 41) TIMES (NZ) 42) The Antifragile Enterprise 43) Nouvel Economiste (fr), 44) Avenire (it) 45) The Epistemologist Steve Fuller 46) ENGINEERS (IEEE) 47) Why Are Old Technologies Hard to Kill? 48) Architecture Organizationelle (fr.) 49) Oil Explorations 50) BIG DATA 51) Aftenposten 52) Edge Perspectives HEALTH CARE: Disease Management Care, Health Care (Blog) Journal of Emergency Management (forthcoming),
Note that the book is a vindication of doers risk-takers and the 99% people who bear the costs of their mistakes (and typically don't write books and book reviews): Myths & Errors promoted by the 1%. On the 4-year smear campaign by the Guardian).
Facebook Forum (limited to philosophical discussions)
Trilogy: The Works are now grouped & called INCERTO, A PHILOSOPHICAL ESSAY ON UNCERTAINTY, nonoverlapping 5 volumes accessible in any order: the main Trilogy (Antifragile, The Black Swan, & Fooled by Randomness) plus philosophical and technical addenda, 1) The Bed of Procrustes(philosophical & practical aphorisms), & 2) Metaprobability, Convexity, & Heuristics (freely available technical companion, see below).
Trying to Explain Convexity in Medicine (as well as medical errors as short volatility)- Antifragility explained in biology.
Recent Technical Notes: Metaprobability, Convexity, & Heuristics: Technical Companion for The INCERTO: book-length, freely downloadable 385+ pp. (includes related sections from doctoral thesis). (recently added to Metaprobability, Convexity, & Heuristics). Is currently being turned into a linear, text-book style document.
Paper (with IMF staff) on improvement of stress testing (heuristics too simple for the quants to understand), 2012. Another technical version of the Black Swan Problem, 2012. Technical definition of fragility and antifragility , 2012, (very technical), or a simpler, more intuitive method of detection;
No, small probabilities are not overpriced, Also Recent(2012) The Pinker Problem , Why the One Percent of the One Percent do not depend on the economy (the dynamics of wealth and inequality), We don't know what we are talking about when we talk about probability
Technical work (by others) around the idea of The Black Swan
Publisher Bio and My Official Bio
Important (only): gamma -at- fooledbyrandomness-dot-com. (Please keep very short (postcard style); please avoid attachments and links. I beg journalists & members of the media to leave me alone; they should get in contact with the publishers if they need to. Also, no documentary films, no newspaper articles, no interviews beyond book launches: I write only books and technical papers: I do NOT wish to have a public life or public intellectual life outside of book events).
Lectures and lecture requests (Please refrain from offering honorary degrees, awards, listings in "100 most...",& similar debasements of knowledge that turn it into spectator sport).